The Stanley Cup Final starts tonight with Game 1 in Las Vegas. Here is a breakdown of the series.
The Skinny: Vegas advanced to the Stanley Cup Final in their inaugural season after winning the Pacific Division in the regular season. Vegas swept Los Angeles in the divisional semifinal round, defeated San Jose 4-2 in the divisional final and defeated Winnipeg 4-1 in the conference final. Washington won the Metropolitan Division in the regular season and advanced to the their first Stanley Cup Final since 1998 which they lost to the Detroit Red Wings. Washington defeated Columbus 4-2 in the divisional semifinal round, Pittsburgh 4-2 in the divisional final round and Tampa Bay 4-3 in the conference final.
Vegas: Vegas has been led by two things their top line and their goaltending throughout the entire season and their playoff run. The line of Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith and William Karlsson has produced 16 goals and 31 assists in the playoffs. The trio are the only Vegas players that are in double digits in points in the playoffs. Vegas has gotten some depth scoring from Alex Tuch who has 6 goals tied for second on the team and leads the team with 3 power play goals. James Neal is fourth on the team in goals with 4 and David Perron has not scored a goal but has 7 assists in the playoffs. Vegas doesn’t have a number one defenseman but they do have a bevy of top four type defensemen that have excelled without a true number one. Nate Schmidt, the former Washington Capital, leads the team in ice time averaging just shy of 25 minutes a game with 6 points. Shea Theodore, Colin Miller, Brayden McNabb and Schmidt each have 2 goals from the blue line. Theodore, Miller and Derek Engelland all average over 20 minutes a game. Vegas has an average power play which is 10th in the playoffs converting at 17.6 percent (9 of 51 chances) and a penalty kill that has been really good killing 82.5 percent of penalties (47 of 57 chances) which is 4th in the NHL but they will have their hands full with a dynamic Washington power play. Tuch, Karlsson and Miller have combined for 7 of the 9 Vegas goals on the man advantage this year. The best player in the playoffs for Vegas has been Marc-Andre Fleury between the pipes. Fleury has made highlight reel saves every game and is playing the best hockey of his career. Fleury is 12-3 with a 1.68 GAA, .947 save percentage and 4 shutouts which he leads the NHL in the playoffs in.
Washington: Washington has faced their toughest playoff road this year and they have passed the test with flying colors. The difference between this year and past years is that Washington has been led by a group that is resilient and led by Alex Ovechkin. The captain has played his best hockey so far of his career. Ovechkin has been sensational in the playoffs and he has been the one to make the engine go. Ovechkin is second in the league in points (22) and goals (12) in the playoffs. In the big moments, Ovechkin has been involved whether it’s his assist on the series clincher in game 6 against Pittsburgh or the game winning goal in Game 7 against Tampa Bay. His linemate, Evgeny Kuznetsov, has been great also leading the league in points (24) and third in the league in goals (11). The two of them have been dynamite in the playoffs. T.J. Oshie has provided important depth scoring with 7 goals, 5 of those on the power play and Nicklas Backstrom has 16 points including 12 assists in 15 games. John Carlson is the leader of the defense and has been very good with 3 goals, all on the power play, and 13 assists while averaging shy of 26 minutes a game. Dimtry Orlov and Matt Niskanen are other defensemen that log heavy duty minutes, both over 24 minutes a game, and provide occasional offense. Washington has been great on the power play converting on 28.8 percent of the time (17 of 59 chances) which is 2nd in the NHL. On the other side it hasn’t been a good time for Washington the penalty kill which has killed 75.4 percent of their penalties (46 of 61 opportunities) which is 10th in the NHL. There are four players on the power play that have 3 or more goals, Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Carlson and Oshie which Washington can use to their advantage to not allow Vegas to key in on one player. It has been a story of redemption for Braden Holtby who regained his starting job in Game 2 of the Columbus series. Since then Holtby has been great going 12-6 with a 2.04 GAA, .924 save percentage and 2 shutouts. Holtby became just the fifth goaltender in NHL history to record shutouts in Games 6 and 7 of a series which he did against Tampa Bay to win the Eastern Conference.
Player to watch
Vegas: James Neal-It would be easy to say Fleury and he is a huge player to watch but the point is to find someone who needs to step up. Neal has been good but quiet at times in the playoffs. Vegas needs second line players to step up and provide depth scoring. Neal has 4 goals and 5 assists so far. Neal is a physical presence who should provide some additional help on the forecheck and can create havoc down low in front of Holtby.
Washington: Dimtry Orlov-The one area that Washington needs to focus on in the series is on defense. Vegas has a ton of speed to burn which creates an aggressive forecheck. For Washington there is Carlson and then a drop on defense. Orlov needs to help fill that gap and his 2 goals after 10 in the regular season are a good sign. He is shooting below his regular season percentage by 3 points. But if he can put in a goal or two along with playing good defense in front of Holtby it will help Washington’s chances.
Prediction: This is a going to be a fantastic series. There are plenty of storylines with George McPhee taking the team he built against the one he worked for previously. Barry Trotz and Gerard Gallant are two great coaches that are finally getting their due. As well as the players on the ice. Ovechkin and company finally getting to a Cup final only to play an expansion team. Fleury is going against Ovechkin after many classic battles and the return of Schmidt to Washington. Ovechkin has been spectacular during the playoffs and has been seemingly involved in every big play for Washington. Meanwhile Fleury has stolen the show for Vegas and recorded multiple shutouts in the first two rounds. Vegas has a great top line and can skate around the opposition. Ovechkin and Kuznetsov are going to get theirs in this series but Washington is going to need much more from others not named Oshie. Meanwhile, Vegas has the speed to give the Washington defense trouble in their own end. The Vegas forecheck is relentless and creates turnovers. Karlsson, Smith and Marchessault will create headaches for the Washington defense to go along with the physical play of Neal and Tuch. The speed of all four lines of Vegas to go along with the stellar goaltending of Fleury will be enough for Vegas to win their first series at home and improbably the Stanley Cup in their inaugural season.
Vegas in 7
Conn Smythe: Marc-Andre Fleury
Standing Room Only 